Ten Years After a Devastating Israel/Lebanon War, Both Sides are Prepared to Completely Wipe Each Other Out of Existence!
On July 23, 2003, a 34-day bloody war started between Hezbollah [Shi’ite/Iranian backed terrorist group] and the Israeli Army. Hezbollah basically defeated the larger, better equipped Israelis. Subsequently, I went into both Lebanon and Israel to debrief the commanders of both sides to find out how this war had come about and how the IDF messed up. My assessment will wait for another blog.
Now, according to William Booth,Washington Post [July 23, 2016] the consequences of another war would be devastating for both sides because of the following foreseen consequences:
- In 2006 Hezbollah fought a guerrilla war. Today Hezbollah is a conventional army.
- Iranian-trained Hezbollah troops use highly sophisticated 4th generation Kornet anti-tank guided missiles.
- They also pilot drones coordinated alongside massive artillery and tank support.
- Hezbollah has over 100,000 rockets which can easily strike Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa [massive fertilizer depot results in a huge explosion].
- In the past ten years, Hezbollah has completely transformed the southern Lebanese cities on the Israeli border into sophisticated command posts, anti-tank positions, and missile launch pads.
Ten years later, Israeli generals are deeply concerned that any new wars would be devastating for both sides.They claim that Hezbollah and Lebanese civilians would be completely devastated with an IDF force 10X the size of the present 10,000 Shi’ite fighters.
Whether this is true or not, the point is simple.
Both the Israelis and Hezbollah senior military officials are warning each other of a scenario revolving around mutual assured destruction [MAD]– if there is another war. In part, the dual threats act as a future deterrent to war because both sides are trying to paint a picture of a potential Armageddon that would make it completely improbable that either side could win.
Fortunately, contrary to the common American misperception of the Hezbollah leader: Ayatollah Hasan Nasrallah, he is quite rational, judicious and highly sophisticated in psychological warfare. I recall a time when he sent pictures of dying Israeli soldiers to prospective mothers, forcing these mothers to place pressure on their Prime Minister to stop the continuous raids into Southern Lebanon.
As for the senior commanders in the IDF, I know from personal interviews that they have learned a hard lesson that bombing Southern Lebanon from the air would not end terrorist incursions into Israel.These sophisticated IDF senior commanders are not accustomed to spilling Israeli blood on trivial incursions/wars nor are they willing to start Armageddon!
Instead, both Hezbollah and Israel are watching the EU and parts of Africa which deal with longstanding problems of random terrorist attacks by lone wolfs, sometimes inspired by Sunni al Qaeda or ISIS.
In France, there is a saying about the nefarious/lethal French Foreign Legion trained in Corsica:
“They were never defeated,they were only killed.”