No Civil War In Lebanon!

No Civil War In Lebanon!

No Civil War in Lebanon!

A warning to the Trump administration: leave Lebanon alone, lest you create an uncontrollable civil war.

The recent unexpected resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri was clarion call to the Middle East region that war could be imminent between the Sunnis and Shi’ites-using their proxies.

Lebanon is a very beautiful country with an interesting mixture of different sects and religions. Once, Lebanon was considered the Switzerland of the Middle East because of its political/financial stability. However, in the 1970’s it transformed into a region of major conflicts. We do not want or need that now! It’s not in anyone’s basic national security interest.

The recent trip by Jared Kushner to Saudi Arabia is believed to have precipitated the sudden, unexpected resignation of the stabilizing presence of Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Saad Hariri. On Sunday Hassan Nasarallah, the head of the one-time terrorist group Hezbollah, stated that Hariri’s resignation was imposed by Saudi Arabia. [Times of Israel, Toi Staff, November 6,2017].

In the past few decades, I have fought against Hezbollah and met with Hezbollah officials in Lebanon. I can assure that Hezbollah has become a legitimate part of the Lebanese army/society. It consists 10K-15K hard-core combatants meticulously trained by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard [IRG] in Iran. It would be absolutely self-destructive for Israel or America to consider entering into a war against Hezbollah or Iran.

I have repeatedly stated that Hezbollah/Iran are no threat to our basic national security. In fact, the IRG has fought alongside our own troops against the CIA/ Saudi/Turkey created ISIS in Iraq.

It is believed that Saudi Arabia at the insistence of Jared Kushner/Trump convinced the young Saudi Prince Salaam to fire Hariri because he had a close alliance with Hezbollah in order to form a unity government in Lebanon.

According to the NY Times, November, 5, 2017 [ Anne Bernard]: “… Mr Nasrallah appeared to be ‘trying to de-escalate the situation and contain it’ because the resignation, which leaves Hezbollah without a Sunni governing partner, could strip it of ‘legal and political cover’.

It could also make the Lebanese government more vulnerable to sanctions against the group, which is listed as a terrorist group by the USG.” 

During the 1970’s-80’s, I was involved in trying to resolve the ongoing Lebanese War. I pleaded with my colleague in the Reagan Administration, Lawrence Eagleburger, not to send 200+ Marines into Beirut. I knew that they would end up as cannon fodder.

Unless one has been involved in a terrible civil war or a chaotic combat experience, it is very difficult for the ruling political/military elite to determine the proper strategy and tactical course in a civil war. I can say with certainty that the Hezbollah forces of today are far better fighters than they had been decades ago. Unlike the Israeli soldier, the Hezbollah combatant has been fighting/ training consistently during the guerilla/insurgent conflicts in Iraq/Syria for the past ten years. The IDF has extremely talented but young fighters. Nasrallah knows all too well that the next war between Hezbollah and the IDF will be catastrophic for both sides.

Every IDF soldier killed or wounded is the equivalent of 30 US troops. So the last IDF/Hezbollah War on July 12, 2006  located near Zar’it-Shtula , resulted in a 34-day military conflict in Lebanon, near the Golan Heights. That brief conflict is believed to have killed 1,300 Lebanese people and 165 Israelis [equivalent to 4950 US troops]. This invasion into Lebanon displaced over one million Lebanese and 400,000 Israelis. [Wikipedia]. Another 1,244 IDF were wounded [comparable to 37,320 US forces].

I urge the mothers of both sides to refuse to send their respective sons/daughters into a combat which will result in nothing more than a useless bloodbath. If Israel enters into war, then the USG will follow for no good reason other than they are seemingly our best ally. This is not reality given Israel’s past attacks on our Liberty Ship and the 9/11 Mossad-created World Trade Center implosion.

The former Israeli Prime Minister [2006-2009], Ehud Olmert, said the following:

“In Israel we tend to be carried away by our emotions”.
Keep calm and avoid a war!

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13 thoughts on “No Civil War In Lebanon!

  1. Chia Cha

    US needs domestic front to get rid of all those materialist marxists which are destroying culture and youth. 1% all are materialist marxist atheists, they believe in money. If all those nations around US can have strategic patience and it is going well for them, than US can have strategic patience and wait for others to start killing each other, and for one year in century not get involved in first day of war. US was winning while US was waiting, and delaying to get involved. WW1, WW2, Balkan wars.

  2. DESERT FOX

    Agree completely, however Israel is going to war with Hezbollah as the Zionists control the American government in all facets and so we are going to be pushed into another war in the Mideast for Israel, the hand writing is on the wall.

    The Zionists are going to continue to destroy the Mideast and America is going to continue to spill blood and money for Israel, the die has been cast.

    1. Jason

      Perhaps the Israelis are about to dive into an empty swimming pool. There is a lot of room for Kabuki theatre as unmatched Israeli arrogance and hubris drive their efforts. It is unfortunate in the deepest sense they will destroy themselves without a course correction. I pray that our warriors get an overdue vacation away from this mess.

      1. DESERT FOX

        Israel is going to take the U.S. down with it, the hand writing is on the wall.

  3. Embrey

    It has been said there are only three countries (countries in the Western sense of the word) in the Middle East:
    Iran
    Egypt
    Turkey

    Granted, the Gulf Arabs have exerted great power since the development of their oil fields but even their fields are not infinite. Therefore the Western Arabs’ power is also finite.
    Egypt is not completely Arabic.
    Turkey is not Arabic.
    Iran is not Arabic.
    For that matter, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Libya, Algeria, Tunisia, etc are not Arabic. Islam needs to relax the Arabic cultural overlay so that it can have a reformation.

    1. Chia Cha

      Very smart, even “Arab” math was not their, they took it from conquered tribe.

      1. Embrey

        Interesting. Tell me about the conquered tribe.

        1. LBZ

          Arabs got math from India especially the concept of zero. Arabs also took chess from India. Much of what passes for Arab culture was merely adopted from prior cultures. The ANCIENT Persians were a highly advanced, cultured, artistic and practiced religious tolerance until the Arabs invaded Persia, took credit for Persian culture just as they did in India. Further, there is no Arab ethnicity. there are even too many Arab dialects to actually say there is an Arab language or even an Arab culture. Arabism is actually the creation of Islam as the two imposed those traits upon those the Mohamedan brutal fighters imposed on those they conquered.

        2. LBZ

          Arabs got math from India especially the concept of zero. Arabs also took chess from India. Much of what passes for Arab culture was merely adopted from prior cultures. The ANCIENT Persians were a highly advanced, cultured, artistic and practiced religious tolerance until the Arabs invaded Persia, took credit for Persian culture just as they did in India.

          1. LBZ

            Sorry for duplicate posts. It’s crucial to also know that most of the Gulf Arab nations are actually descendants of Persians. That is why the Gulf Arabs are so fearful their populace may revolt and overthrow the greedy ostentatious bedouin faux kings. Further, Arabs have kidnapped many beautiful women even in modern times. Prince Salman is an example of a child born of multiple western women, perhaps his mother, grandmother, etc. The bedouins are vile, wiry and wily and Salman clearly has western genetic traits.

          2. Embrey

            I have never heard that the Arabs were of Persian descent. I don’t doubt that there has been some DNA sharing back and forth but I view Persians (Fars) and Arabs completely different (excluding their adherence to Islam).
            Why do the Arabs so fear the Phillistines (Palestinians)?

        3. Chia Cha

          that tribe name started with B. I will have to see again

  4. Margaret Price

    Agree we don’t want that. But not sure what is going on here. I’m no expert but here are some info/links that seem intriguing: Although the claim is that KSA is behind Lebanese PM resigning there are two reports that Mr. Harari believes he is at risk. Here are clips and links:

    “A reformist website known to leak what is going on behind the scenes of the Iranian regime, quoted informed sources in Tehran that the adviser to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Akbar Velayati met with resigned Lebanese Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, in Beirut last Friday.During the meeting he threatened Hariri to choose between backing up the strategy of the US administration against Hezbollah, or Lebanon will face chaos and Saad Hariri will meet the fate of his father who was assassinated on February 14th 2005. According to Amadnews, and in a report entitled, “What happened during the meeting between Velayati and Hariri,” the website reported that one day after the meeting, the Prime Minister of Lebanon announced his resignation from his office. Hariri stressed that “The current circumstances are very similar to those surrounding the assassination of Rafik Hariri.”
    https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/11/07/Khamenei-s-advisor-threatens-Hariri-you-will-meet-your-father-s-fate-.html
    The Tehran Times quoted another KSA newspaper saying
    “According to Saudi regime newspaper Asharq AL-awsat, Western intelligence officials warned Hariri about an attempt to assassinate him. However, the Lebanese Army stated that no evidence of an assassination attempt against the Prime Minister or any other political figure has been found.”
    http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/418256/Hezbollah-leader-claims-Hariri-s-resignation-to-be-Saudi-madness
    But also quoted Nasrallah (HZ) as saying “What happened was Saudi madness and we’ll wait and see what happens over the next few days,” Nasrallah said. Nasrallah added that he “doesn’t expect war in the near future, but the next war will be fateful and will decide the balance.”
    http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/418256/Hezbollah-leader-claims-Hariri-s-resignation-to-be-Saudi-madness
    My guess is HZ threatened Harari and he responded – now HZ has “put their foot it in” so to speak and has created a bad situation for themselves.
    One other possibly unrelated detail perhaps of interest:
    “Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi announced on Sunday that President Hassan Rouhani refused a request by the American side for a meeting with President Donald Trump. “A request indeed was made by the U.S. side, but it wasn’t accepted by President Rouhani,” Qassemi said.”
    http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/418109/U-S-confirms-Rouhani-refused-meeting-with-Trump-at-UN
    hmmm….

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