Its Not Over Yet!

Its Not Over Yet!

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Announced on July 16, 2016 that an Attempted Military Coup Against Him and His Regime is Over!

Not really! 

As many of you readers may recall, I have repeatedly talked about the inevitability of a military coup against the increasingly dictatorial Erdogan over the past few years. I have been monitoring the progression of Erdogan’s increasing submission to fundamentalist Islam as a rationale for usurping more power in a country that had been secular since the time of Mustafa Kamal Ataturk [1920’s].

I was also talking from personal experience.

For years, I had been visiting Bodrum [seashore], Istanbul, and Ankara for one reason or another. Over that period of time, I have witnessed Erdogan becoming a tyrant, suppressing religious freedoms in concert with massive arrests of legitimate opponents. Some were journalists,others were senior military officers, and some ordinary citizens who simply opposed him or expressed civil discontent. Often, I would watch in amazement as his police force would round up innocent Turkish students on a random basis.

The Erdogan I got to know was not always that way. When he was the Mayor of Istanbul, an incredibly bustling city, he was effective at maintaining services and running a complex city. Yet, he decided to climb up the greasy pole of  national Turkish politics—in itself, an inherently dangerous pursuit.In that process, he neutralized any potential opponents who could stay in the way of his ascendancy; including army generals and his once most trusted ally, Imam Fetullah Gulen.

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In contrast to Erdogan, Gulen, a mystical Sufi Muslim, advocated for complete religious freedom and a democratic constitution. Gulen had to flee to America, there he created a large movement espousing his philosophy from his 26 acre retreat in the Pocono Mountains of Pennsylvania. There, he was able to create over 1000 schools in 100 countries based on his belief that science, education, and different religions should be integrated into one organization.

In turn, Erdogan viewed Gulen’s philosophy as  a direct threat to his increasing despotism. Recently, Erdogan spent years trying to eliminate any elements of Gulen’s advocates in the Turkish judiciary, military, and media. Erdogan’s second initiative was to support ISIS fighters who would eventually attempt to destabilize Iraq and Syria through weapons, ammunition and monies that Erdogan provided for big bucks.

Erdogan has, like most tyrants, accumulated a major fortune through the highly skilled use of political patronage and massive amounts of corruption in the construction business.The military coup that occurred on July 15, 2016 was broadcast world-wide over censored media. In part, it was successful, in part it failed.

Unlike the military coups in Thailand and Egypt which occurred without much blood shed, the Turkish coup inflicted over 200-300  dead soldiers/civilians. Yet,the real war was on social media which Erdogan had to utilize despite his having banned it in the past as a nefarious instrument for anti-Erdogan messages.

Using twitter, Erdogan pled with his followers in Istanbul to flood the streets with anti-coup protestors.These protestors came out in force and impeded the ongoing military coup.The media controls the message.

From Erdogan’s perspective this military coup is over. Yet, from my experience in such matters, I would caution Erdogan that he is at best optimistic, if not self-delusional.

Contrary to the paid experts in the media, military coups are not configured as one single episode which either succeeds or fails. Usually, military coups have an extended life span which goes in spurts and can be they either ‘soft’ or ‘kinetic’.

During the Nixon Administration,many senior officials took time to transfer power from a disabled POTUS to the more capable hands of the DCI, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Defense. In one other case, Secretary of Defense, Bob Gates [former DCI] warned the US military not to even consider a military coup, despite the fact that his civilian handlers: Bush/Cheney, had just killed 3000 plus Americans on 9/11.

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Unbeknownst to Gates, he had been placed in his position because there had been another soft coup which had eliminated the nefarious former Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, who had been proven to be completely incompetent when he had initiated an Iraq War without having an competent strategy for the post war occupation.

As a result of the Turkish kinetic coup, Erdogan will be on alert 24/7 trying to make certain that no one will usurp his powers. His paranoia and state of wariness will increase exponentially to the point where he literally cannot, nor will not trust anyone, especially his closest friends.His subsequent actions may well appear erratic and vengeful.

There is a saying on the wall of one of the U.S. intelligence agencies which reads as follows:

“Paranoids really do have enemies!”

Ataturk had warned that the Turkish Armies’ loyalty should never be beholden to any civilians; furthermore, by Turkish law, their army must step up to guard the integrity of the constitution and the republic.

Americans: think about following that precept as our country exits a POTUS admin contrived by a maelstrom of false flags and racial divisiveness.

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Former Democratic President Harry Truman said the following:
“I don’t give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it is hell!”

 

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35 thoughts on “Its Not Over Yet!

  1. Watchmen

    Nice post, I’m surprised how alike paranoia can look.

  2. Iggy A

    “he literally cannot, nor will not trust anyone”

    When I saw how quickly Erdogan returned to Istanbul, and so freely mixed with the crowd out in the open, and I thought he might either be stupid, careless, and knew he was safe. — How in the world – in the heat of the start of a major coup – could he trust individuals that much…? They don’t have snipers in Turkey? No lone wolf in the right place at the right time wouldn’t stab him to death or shoot him?

    I also understood his desire to talk tough about dealing with the aftermath of the coup, but given the military’s role in the Constitution, was it smart to announce wholesale purges, and your desire to create a new Turkey via reform of the military, and have your people out arresting judges as well as military leaders…?

    How would he know how many fence-sitters there might be out there in the Military who weren’t willing to put their lives on the line for a coup beforehand but now might decide they made a mistake because they’re likely to be taken out anyway…?

    It might make more sense if he’d cut a deal with enough of the military and staged the coup himself. Maybe even a generational thing —- I know hardly anything about the Turkish military, but once or twice, South Korea experienced a coup in which younger, bolder military officers took out the old guard as well as civilian leadership…

    1. Chia Cha

      In way we are right, why not to kill Erdogan right away or arrest him, but I think Dr. P is right again. Better to do that after he become real dictator, because then petit bouergeois, which did not go out to support military, next time will.
      Also without air dominance you cannot make it, unless you kill him right away. Funny someone would start coup if you od not control F-16s, unless this is just trigger.

      But because sociolgy is communist scence getting banned on west. Stupid westerners, (those who represent it today) meaning Bush/Ron Paul masonic nazi bankers westerners do not get that islam and trade goes very well, meaning petit bouergeois as the way how to make it, is reduced in split. You cannot make it 1/4 of population only.

      1. Chia Cha

        I guess army did not want bloody civil war, seems Putin is very happy with Erdogan…
        like i said one year ago, we have 4 little emperors, Merkel, Orban, Putin and Erdogan.
        Central power countries Empire of Germany, Austro-Hungarian Empire, Ottoman Empire and Russian empire of 1914…
        Just Putin towers over them 10 times. Heck whole flock of US capitalitst is unable to do anything to great emperor…
        Ok lets think, who is going to have better lap time, Ferrari Testarosa with one driver but having to listen for every move, 10 gernerals-capitalists sitting inside and trying to reach agreement, or Ford Pinto with Putin inside.

  3. Dear Dr Pieczenik,

    Your analysis is, as ever, exceptionally insightful and I thank you for it. I had initially rejoiced at the news of the coup – though, alas, it was not meant to be on this occasion.

    If, as I hope, Trump is elected this year, I sincerely hope you are a major part of his administration.
    Keep up the good work!

  4. BillUK

    Just because you are paranoid, does not mean you are not being followed!

  5. Iggy A

    He’s purging thousands and quickly and beyond the military.

    If he had serious opposition beforehand, then they must be thinking the time to act is now or never. Or catch the next boat out of country…

    I’d like to know how the arrests are being made. What show of force, if any, is he displaying to keep potential opposition in line?

  6. BillUK

    I notice it can be a bit ‘deathy’ if you are just about to testify against Hillary, ask Seth Rich.

    1. Chia Cha

      I guess her agaents cannot reach UK, without agreement with your government, meaning, yet just like that. For instance if you tesify against her in UK… Luckily you had Brexit, on time I guess.
      These killing are good sign, it means that there are not enough of consumer goods to keep people in line, now just force and censorship will work.
      Fascism is way how liberal capitalism protects it self. Will it conserve it self globaly, or it will try go in to expansion, that is something to be seen.

  7. […] July 16, 2016 Dr. Steve R. Pieczenik, MD, PhD […]

  8. […] July 16, 2016 Dr. Steve R. Pieczenik, MD, PhD […]

  9. Lets be very clear – PUTIN is NOT on the same dinner table as ERDOGAN – not even close. PUTIN is absolute with his sense of self, in that his philosophy as a YUDANSHA is to keep his friends close, and his enemies even closer. The clock is now ticking and ERDOGAN’s days are now numbered on PUTIN’s calendar.

  10. Iggy A

    A story out today says Turkish Intelligence is blaming this partly on Egypt. Another story says Egypt blocked the UN resolution to announce support for the Erdogan regime.

    If you are Biblical inclined – Jew or Christian – it starts to get really interesting…

    1. Chia Cha

      It was always fight between Constantinopol and Cairo for dominance over muslim world, historically. Mameluk empire vs Ottoman, from time of Mongol destruction of Baghdad and Baghdad kaliphate.

      1. Embrey

        That jives with what I have always heard about the Middle East.
        specifically that there are only 3 countries in the Middle East: Egypt, Iran and Turkey. Every other country is said to be a western construct drawn by western imperial powers.

  11. Iggy A

    Why would Turkish military leaders now – given the military’s historic, constitutional role in the society – sit back and accept this rising purge…?

    1. Chia Cha

      This is some heavy double game, we cannot trust anyone, any more, just like aways, only what we can see is that speed of incident rates goes drastically hight, stakes are getting higher and rethorich is more harsh… is it game, we cannot know

      http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160717/1043173747/turkey-washington-obama-kerry-erdogan.html

      http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160717/1043173747/turkey-washington-obama-kerry-erdogan.html

  12. Watchmen

    I’m getting at second glance, that it maybe was a staged coup for the political cover to start taking out serious government opponents through killings happening during the ‘coup’ and now cracking down on the rest of the society… press and apparently education system. What are ya’ll gettin?

    1. Iggy A

      That was my best guess as it was happening.

      It appeared competent at the start. Like you’d expect out of the Turkish Military. Then it fell apart with virtually no effort. And Erdogan showed up and mixed with the crowds as if he was invulnerable.

      Now the purge is up to 15,000.

      Who knows what happened…. Why is the military just accepting the purge? I guess — what resistance could they offer if they haven’t had time to plan a real action?

      I’d have to believe seeds are being planted right now. And they’re getting fertilized heavily. How long before they sprout? How much fruit will they bear?

      How weak are the Kurds in the East? What other military challenges could Turkey face? Purging much of your military, down to the unit commander and high ranking NCO level, guts your forces. Then the paranoia sets in. You don’t field an effective fighting force for years…. At least that’s the more likely outcome… Turkey better hope it doesn’t face much of a challenge over the next decade….

  13. Dread the Super Predator #HillaryForPrison2016 https://youtu.be/vFP-XE-ILA0

  14. Tissiemoe

    DR. P,

    DO YOU BELIEVE THE TURKISH DICTATOR CREATED THE COUP?

  15. Great work, Dr. Steve! I seem to sense a reference to McLuhan in there. I’ve been enjoying the insights of his Understanding Media (1964) recently.

    It seems now is a time at which media is more powerful than ever, but the nature of media is in flux and changing rapidly.

    At such times experts on communications are very valuable. I see Dr. James Tracy as one of the good guys (as far as that goes), but another professor in the field evinces the darker side of psychological warfare (that being the craven J. Michael Waller). The latter, in his book Fighting the War of Ideas Like a Real War, has such chaperone headings as “Making jihad work for America”. Such cynical thinking from a policy wonk (during the W. Bush junta…2007) only reaffirms the reasons for the success of the proxy army ISIS (a rebranding of al-Qaeda).

    Perhaps I am way off base with all of this, but I do value some of Waller’s information. He has a chapter in the same book titled “The importance of words”. A very memorable term and concept is material to this chapter: semantic infiltration. Waller credits a Mr. Iklé of the Rand Corporation for coining this phrase in the 70s.

    So the book is not a total loss, but I’m curious as to your thoughts about media manipulation from a psychological warfare angle. As a psychiatrist, I feel you would have keen insights into memes (in the Richard Dawkins sense), memetic engineering, etc. I was fascinated to learn of an Applied Memetics in Arlington, VA. Obviously some enterprising ex-intel ops are taking this approach seriously (at least insofar as making a buck).

    I would be most grateful if you would discuss (from your expertise in psychological warfare) the current concatenation of seemingly synthetic events (terror attacks, mass casualty active shooter events, cop killings, fake coup, etc.).

    One further note: it occurred to me upon cursory research that the M.O. of the Dallas sniper(s) shooting was suspiciously similar to the Maidan Snipers’ Massacre of Feb. 20, 2014. A most interesting sideboard was that the number of dead in Kiev (during that event) and the number of ostensible dead in Orlando (the preceding link in the chain) was the same: 49.

    Thank you in advance and also for the wonderful work which you have already published,

    –Paul

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