U.S. Placed New Economic Sanctions on North Korea. Beware of a pyrrhic victory!
One of the few strategies that the USG has done well is economic warfare.When the Soviet Union was dismantled in the 1980’s, one of the major instruments employed was to bankrupt the Soviet regime by forcing it to increase its expenditures for perceived military interests.
SDI [Star Wars] was more of a contrived scientific entity which was intended to intimidate the Soviet leaders into a military race which would inevitably bankrupt the Soviet Union.
During the ten year period of the Iran sanctions, every bank, legal and illegitimate was targeted by the US Treasury in order to force them to stop doing business with Iran.
It too worked.
Iran was forced to the negotiation table because they were hurting for cash flow and enduring an untenably deteriorating economy.
Now, the USG has placed Kim Jung Un in its crosshairs of economic warfare for which I am certain that North Koreans and their Chinese overseers are not prepared. I believe that if we were to succeed in taking down the financial elements of the ‘hermit state’, we will encounter problems far greater than what we have seen in the past.
Despite the pervasive belief that the past or present rulers of North Korea were crazy, they were and still are quite rational in garnering world attention whenever they saw fit.
For now, Kim, a young man trained in a Swiss boarding school, is garnering world attention by creating nuclear weapons which have some capability to reach across a small part of the Pacific Ocean. However, if Kim finds himself boxed in by a failing economy caused by our economic sanctions, then he may strike out against one of our closest allies.
Kim is capable of storming over the Demilitarized Military Zone [DMZ] and overwhelm Seoul[SK] with very little effort but at a great cost in human lives.He is also capable of threatening his long perceived enemy, Japan, with some primitive form of missile system, if he so desires.
USG economic warfare is so effective that we are now entering a zone of unintended consequences which we have to understand thoroughly.
North Korea is exceedingly poor.
Our South Korean allies have been using North Korean cheap labor to make a variety of products for decades. China has made certain that from time to time, it can check Kim’s outlandish behaviors.
Yet, China fears one outcome more than any other.If North Korea were to disintegrate economically then the citizens will stream over the contiguous border and flood the already highly constrained Chinese economy, possibly forcing it too into bankruptcy.
As much as we think of China as a potential enemy, we are far more concerned that as one of the largest economic powers in the world, China, might also collapse, both politically and economically. This would create a massive deterioration of the highly connected world economy/power.
An economic chain reaction would be initiated over which the USG would have no control.US economic warfare may garner us a pyrrhic victory. It will be exceedingly costly.
I strongly advise those who are initiating the economic war against North Korea spend some time to game out every possible consequence imaginable.We were not very successful in anticipating surprises—witness “Brexit”.
Cicero, the Roman orator cautions us as follows:
“Certain signs precede certain events.”